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Downstream demand plummeted Methanol rose encountered numerous obstacles
Methanol futures basically completed May contract to the main contract in September transition, the price remained at 3000-3100 oscillation finishing range. Last Thursday, methanol 1209 contract rose sharply, single-day Masukura 8736 hand, trading volume enlarged to 46,320 hands, almost equal to maintaining a month's oscillation finishing platform along 3100 points. Methanol futures can continue out of the independent market? The analysis is as follows:
At present, the methanol market does not have the preconditions of surging or plunging, so it is hard to pull down hard to sustain the oscillation in the short term. Technically, the role of spot costs more obvious support, with the funds to promote the methanol contract in the vicinity of 1209 there is still a rebound in power. If the downstream demand can not be improved, the market will continue to hover in the range of 3000-3100, do not rule out the late continue to explore 3050-3100 heavy resistance interval.
Formaldehyde market demand to expand domestic resistance, adequate market supply, manufacturers compete for intense profit margins compression, operating rate decreased over the same period last year, only to maintain about 5-6 percent. Methanol prices began to push up early March due to raw materials, formaldehyde manufacturers due to cost pressures with the passive increase, or between 50-100 yuan / ton. However, due to the economic growth and the real estate control policies, the progress of terminal products such as construction industry, decoration industry, furniture industry, adhesives and coatings lags behind. As a result, the rising market is short-lived. Most manufacturers are adjusting their prices to deal with the inventory pressure.
Downstream DME 3.15 CCTV exposure liquefied gas doping DME illegal behavior hit, DME manufacturers more parking hedging, supply has declined, according to statistics, the country's major enterprises operating rate was 37.3%, chain decreased by 1.06 %. In terms of liquefied gas demand, the market sentiment was lukewarm. The general situation of taking the goods, together with the thorough investigation of blending behavior, the spot digestion delay and the glacial acetic acid were equally difficult to change the trend of weakness. Although the manufacturers also had more parking maintenance plans, they were still manufacturers The two sides make an effort, not driven by demand. The overall demand for methanol downstream did not buy the slightest behavior, although the pull-up has the tacit understanding of manufacturers, but the demand suffered numerous obstacles, methanol unilateral pull up slightly thin.
Some domestic methanol plant parking in April, the market has a certain positive impact. The national average effective rate of commencement of construction capacity was 62.33%, of which construction in Northwest China started the load was 75.65%, slightly down from March, but still far above the average starting load. Shandong due to lower downstream cyclical replenishment, start slightly weaker, the impact on the market is relatively short. And around the device parking repair time will not completely coincide, is expected to short-term installation of methanol will not power up the formation of incentives.
In terms of imports, incomplete domestic methanol imports amounted to 257,800 tons in March, but the total volume of imports is estimated at about 360,000 tons. In early March, a large number of influx of imported goods into the port area, coastal methanol stocks rose sharply, the most obvious in southern China, by the end of February 120,000 tons to the current 150,000 tons. As the upstream businesses cover their reluctance to sell sentiment continued, stocks in East China have been at a high level, remained at 500,000 tons, and most of the sources of supply concentrated in the hands of first-hand business.
It is reported that the inflow of Iranian goods to China has been severely restricted. However, Iranian sellers have used various settlement methods to stimulate the release of goods. The rumor can be settled in RMB settlement. For the time being, the import volume has not been affected and remains high. It is expected that the domestic import volume from April to May will flow at a fixed amount, there is no settlement method and cargo blockages and other issues. Overall, the high operating rate of domestic manufacturers, imports have no effect, the inventory remains the same in all regions under the downturn, supply pressure continued.